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2020-03-02 06:30:49 来源：范文大全收藏下载本文
努力寻找稳增长与调结构的平衡点
王小广
前两个月数据表明，今年经济下行压力仍然很大。首先，下行压力来自投资增幅的继续放慢。前两个月累计全国固定资产投资（不含农户）同比增长13.9%，比去年同期回落４个百分点，比去年全年下降1.8个百分点。而投资增长的继续放慢主要有两个原因。一是房地产调整仍在继续，没有任何企稳迹象。1-2月房地产投资同比增长10.4%，比去年同期回落8.9个百分点，比去年全年回落0.1个百分点。二是制造业投资增长调整力度加大。受总需求不足和PPI持续达3年整的负增长的影响，制造业投资增长继续放慢，前两个月制造业投资同比增长10.6%，比去年全年回落2.9个百分点。其次，工业生产继续回落。前两个月工业增加值同比增长6.8%，创2008年全球金融危机以来新低。从这两个指标看，今年一季度经济增长将会继续放慢，可能跌破7%。对此，社会上存在许多很悲观的观点，但我们认为，中国经济不过是处于转型升级的关口，一些方面已出现了重要转机，主要是新的增长点开始形成，结构在不断优化，这是支持经济继续保持中高速的关键因素。在我国经济进入新常态后，看经济形势好坏，不能仅看投资、工业方面。李克强总理在今年的政府工作报告中第一次提出当前我国经济正处于深度调整期，指的正是投资（包括房地产）和工业，投资增长放慢、房地产“去泡沫化”、工业调整是一种内在趋势，宏观经济政策主要是防止它们回落过大过快，而不是采取过度的刺激措施让其重回升势。新常态下中国经济，不乏有新的亮点，新的增长点代替传统增长点。第一个亮点就是服务业增长较快，而且有较大的上行空间。2012－2014年间的连续三年第三产业增加值增幅均在８%以上，且比较平衡，三年分别为８%、８.３%和８.１%，与之相比，第二产业则逐年回落，从2012年的８.２%回落到2013年的7.9%，再回落到2014年的仅７.３%。“一上一下”，正体现了我国经济结构的深刻变化。服务业增长较快，政府加大对小微企业的扶持力度等，正是近几年来经济下行但就业形势较好的最重要原因。目前服务业增长仍然面临许多体制障碍和价格管制，通过深化改革，不断放松准入限制和逐步取消价格管制，其发展潜力将会大幅释放，服务业将成为中国经济的新引擎。第二个亮点是消费增长趋稳向好。前２个月社会消费品零售总额同比增长１０.7%，扣除价格因素，实际增长11%，分别比去年同期和全年加快0.2个和0.1个百分点。第三个亮点是国民收入增长格局也在进一步优化。过去居民收入增长长期慢于ＧＤＰ增长的趋势正在改善。城乡居民收入增长连续两年快于ＧＤＰ增长，收入分配出现了向劳动者报酬倾斜的良好态势，这也是消费增长平稳向好的重要原因。第四个亮点是，制造业升级和创新的步伐在加快，在传统工业、商业步入深度调整期的同时，一些新型工业、新的商业业态在加快发展。有喜有忧，有降有升，体现了正是经济处于深度调整的典型特征，经济下行不是全面的下行，更不是全面衰退，而是新旧交替，经济缓慢回落中结构在不断的优化升级。
Balance Between Stable Growth and Structure Adjustment Data of the first two months shows that China\'s economy is still facing mounting downward preure, which due to the slowdown of the investment growth.Accumulated fixed-aet investment grew 13.9% than the previous year, down 4 %age points compared with the same period last year and 1.8 %age points compared with that throughout 2014.Two reasons account for the slowdown.First, real estate adjustments continue, with no sign of recovery.property investment rose 10.4% in the first two month, down 8.9 %age points from the same period last
year, and 0.1 %age points than in the whole 2014.Second, manufacturing investment growth remains slack due to weak demand and the influence of PPI decrease in the past three consecutive years.In January-February, the sector\'s investment increased 10.6% year on year, 2.9 %age points slower than the overall growth in 2014.Slowing industrial output growth also weighs on the downward preure.Value-added industrial output in January-February rose 6.8% year on year, a record low since the global financial crisis in 2008.Above statistics project further economic slowdown that\'s likely to bring first-quarter GDP growth to below 7%.It\'s understandable that some people may thus become peimistic about the situation.But that\'s not how I look at it.The slowdown is but a phase during China\'s economic transformation and upgrading.Significant turnaround appears in some areas, with new growth points coming into being and industrial structure improving, which are key factors to keep the country\'s economic growth at the medium-to-high speed.China\'s economy has entered the \"new normal\".Industrial output and investment growth no longer plays a decisive role in aeing the economic situation.Premier Li Keqiang has for the first time said in this year\'s government work report that the country is undergoing profound economic restructuring - exactly in investment and industrial areas.Investment growth slowdown, real estate debubbling, and industrial adjustments are inherent trends.What our macro-economic policies will do is prevent a sharp slowdown instead of helping the economy to surge again with strong stimulus measures.Certainly, there are things that keep us upbeat.And new growth points are replacing old ones as China\'s economy enters the new normal.First, the service sector is gaining momentum and there will be much progre in the industry.Its added value saw huge growth in the past three years, reaching 8%, 8.3% and 8.1% respectively.By contrast, that of the secondary industry dropped steadily to 7.3% last year from 8.2% in 2012.That\'s a big shift amid economic restructuring.The rapid development of the service industry, coupled with the country\'s growing support for small and micro businees, largely explains the relatively good prospect of job market despite economic slowdown in the past few years.Institutional barriers remain on the road of the sector\'s development, though.As reforms deepen, restrictions of the market acceion will be gradually loosened and price control will be lifted step by step.By doing this, the service industry will increasingly gain momentum and become a new engine to drive the country\'s economic growth.Second, domestic consumption is growing steadily and smoothly.Total retail sales of consumer goods in January-February saw a year-on-year increase of 10.7 %, with a real growth of 11 % (adjusted for inflation), up 0.2 %age points compared with the same period of last year, and 0.1% than in 2014.Third, national income growth is catching up.In the past, residents\' income had long been growing slower than GDP.But such a trend is now reversing.For the last two years, income growth in both urban and rural areas has outstripped that of GDP, and income distribution has become more labor-friendly, which contributed greatly to domestic consumption.Fourth, manufacturing upgrading and innovation have been on fast track.While traditional sectors are undergoing deep reforms, new industries and busine formats are springing up.That\'s a bitter-sweet proce and exactly the characteristics of an economy in a period of deep changes.
在新旧交替，新的增长点没有最终确立，而旧经济调整压力仍然很大的情况，经济继续下行不可避免，这也是此次李克强总理政府工作报告中将经济增长目标下降０.５个百分点至７%左右的根本原因。宏观经济政策既要稳增长，又要调结构，但根本是调结构转方式，这是避免“中等收入陷阱”的根本举措。面临经
济下行压力不断增大，过去的政策选择是不加犹豫的把稳增长放在首位，不惜一切代价地稳增长或保增长，而把促改革调结构放在一边，结果是经济增长没稳住，相反，保增长的过头使调整压力更大。新一届政府坚决顶住压力，下决心再也不走老路，不搞强刺激政策，而是积极创新宏观调控的思路和方式，把政策重点放在促改革调结构上。其主要思路是寻找稳增长与调结构的平衡点，即出台的政策措施既要能调结构又要能稳增长。如加大公共投资、农村水利和棚户区改造力度，既能增加投资，抑制因房地产步入长期深度调整而引发的投资加速下行趋势，又能补短板，优化经济结构；再如，加大中西部地区基础设施建设，既能增加投资，又通过改善中西部基础设施，促进中西部经济较快增长，从而明显缩小区域差距。还有，简政放权，加快商事制度改革，加快投融资体制改革，加快推进服务业的改革开放，可以激发市场和社会活力，为大众创业、服务业发展创造宽松的宏观发展环境。
前两个月我国经济发展还有一亮点，就是出口增长回升较为明显，前２个月出口增长１５%，明显比去年好转，去年同期是下降1.7%，考虑到这一因素，今年一季度ＧＤＰ仍然会保持在７%以上。
（国家行政学院决策咨询部副主任，研究员）
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